Tag: latest crypto news

Bitcoin (BTC) is turning back the clock this week as tariff mayhem drags BTC price action toward 2021.

• Bitcoin is giving up bull market support lines left and right as a new “death cross” completes on the BTC/USD daily chart.

• CPI week is firmly overshadowed by US trade tariffs and their increasingly global impact on stock markets.

• Both crypto and TradFi market participants are drawing comparisons to “Black Monday” 1987 and the COVID-19 cross-market crash.

• Bitcoin’s speculative investor base is firmly out of pocket and likely increasingly tempted to panic sell.

• Sentiment everywhere is nonexistent, with the TradFi Fear & Greed Index recording its lowest score in history.

BTC price “death cross” brings 2021 highs into play

Bitcoin risks falling below its old all-time highs from March 2024 next, Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

After slipping below $75,000 for the first time since November, BTC/USD is rapidly reawakening long forgotten bull market support lines. These include $69,000, a level that first appeared in 2021.

The dive, which came as a copycat move several days after stock markets began to suffer major losses, caught many by surprise.

Is our uncorrelated hedge in the room right now?

— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) April 6, 2025

“This is $BTC’s last chance to maintain its macro uptrend structure,” popular analyst Kevin Svenson summarized in a warning on X.

Among the trend lines now lost as support is the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at around $77,000.

In an X thread on the coming week, popular trader CrypNuevo described price violating that level as the “only short triggerr I’ll be paying attention to.”

“If we drop below support and get back above it, then I’ll consider this as a deviation and that will be my long trigger fo a push up back to $87k,” he explained.

Trading resource Material Indicators, meanwhile flagged a telltale “death cross” on daily timeframes. This typical bearish signal involves the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing below its 200-day equivalent.

“The momentum carrying through that Death Cross, puts BTC at a critical macro support test,” it told X followers. 

“Stay tuned…”

CPI week meets emergency rate cuts

Like last week, US trade tariffs are the major talking point across financial markets worldwide.

The impact of measures announced last week continues to be felt, as downside momentum on risk assets now becomes fueled by the prospect of more tariffs set for release on April 9.

Speaking to mainstream media over the weekend, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the US government would go ahead with the measures without delay.

“The tariffs are coming,” he told CBS News.

With sentiment diving and panic setting in among market participants from trading desks to hedge funds, little attention is being paid to the week’s other potential volatility catalysts.

These will come in the form of US inflation data, itself a key topic as tariffs risk causing unexpected price growth.

The March prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are due on April 10 and 11, respectively.

Previously, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, said that while tariffs would have a palpable effect on the US inflation battle, it would be difficult to assess this accurately in advance.

“As the new policies and their likely economic effects become clear, we will have a better sense of the implications for the economy and for monetary policy,” he subsequently said during a speech last week.

Market expectations of the Fed easing policy to compensate for the tariffs are clearly reflected in interest rate forecasts.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool now shows that consensus favors a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s May meeting — sooner than the June deadline assumed until this weekend.

In informal circles, including social media and prediction platforms such as Polymarket, bets of an “emergency” rate cut coming sooner are rising rapidly.

“The Federal Reserve may have to make an emergency rate cut soon,” Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano predicted at the weekend. 

“Inflation has fallen to the lowest levels since 2020. If this continues, it will be a BIG problem.”

“Black Monday” 1987 or COVID-19 repeat?

In the short term, the “effects” of tariffs are feared to include a marketwide crash similar to “Black Monday” in 1987. 

As Cointelegraph reported, market responses to the first round of reciprocal tariffs laid the foundations for turmoil at the upcoming Wall Street open.

A 10% dip in two consecutive days has only happened for the fourth time in history.

October 1987.
October 2008.
March 2020.
April 2025.

In 1987 & 2020, it marked the bottom.
In 2008, it took one more month to mark the bottom.

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 6, 2025

For trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe, crypto’s Black Monday moment is already here.

“I think we’ll see a rollercoaster 1-2 weeks in which we’re having a test of the lows for Bitcoin. It can go as deep as $70K from here,” he warned X followers on April 7.

Van de Poppe saw an emergency Fed rate cut as the only logical escape path for stemming the risk-asset bleed.

Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter meanwhile pointed to heavy losses on both Chinese and Japanese stocks during the week’s first Asia trading session.

“We are seeing the market’s first circuit breakers since March 2020,” it reported.

Kobeissi described market sentiment as “polarized,” drawing multiple comparisons to the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 and beyond.

“This is by far the most panic we have seen in the market since March 2020. In fact, we may be nearing investor panic levels ABOVE March 2020,” it added. 

“It’s currently a widespread rush to the exit for investors.”

Bitcoin’s new hodler losses multiply

On Bitcoin, the investor cohort likely first to capitulate are short-term holders (STHs) — the market’s more speculative entities with a buy-in date within the last six months.

As Cointelegraph reported, these investors are highly sensitive to BTC price volatility, and that their panic selling creates a vicious circle for the market.

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant now shows that the STH cohort is falling increasingly into the red.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks STH coins moving in profit or loss, is currently below breakeven.

“When STH-SOPR falls below 1.0, it reflects that short-term investors are realizing losses — a classic signal of capitulation,” CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent noted in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts.

“Looking back at 2024, major price corrections were accompanied by sharp drops in STH-SOPR, often reaching or falling below the -2 standard deviation band. These moments — notably in May, July, and August — aligned with periods of panic selling among short-term market participants.”

Below $80,000, BTC/USD is now comfortably under the aggregate cost basis for STH investors, CryptoQuant confirms.

Bitcoin’s total aggregate cost basis, which includes long-term holders, currently sits at $43,000.

Sentiment eclipses bearish records

In a sobering yet arguably bizarre move, the extent of bearish sentiment on traditional markets, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, has fallen to extremes.

Related: Bitcoin crash risk to $70K in 10 days increasing — Analyst says it’s BTC’s ‘practical bottom’

The latest data from the Index, which uses a basket of factors to compute the market mood, gives a reading of just 4/100.

“It’s never been this low: not in COVID, not after FTX collapse,” popular crypto commentator Atlas noted.

Crypto continues to weather the storm somewhat better, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 23/100 on April 7.

Beyond the panic, some voices are cautiously hinting that now is an ideal moment to “buy the dip” — whether on stocks or crypto.

“This doesn’t necessarily mean the absolute bottom is in, but is generally at least a local opportunity,” the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, argued in an X thread.

Edwards tallied up both bullish and bearish arguments, and concluded that much risk remained, especially to Bitcoin’s bull market.

“To be fair Bitcoin did very well last week, but has played catch up (to the downside) over the weekend. Pending some large unforeseen news, it’s going to be hard for Bitcoin to fight a correlation=1 event across risk assets, we saw something similar in early 2020,” he commented. 

“That said, there is historically significant relative strength here to note. We can likely expect Bitcoin to rally the hardest off the bottom, whereever and whenever that is.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Opinion by: Ismael Hishon-Rezaizadeh, co-founder and CEO of Lagrange

Trade wars and proxy wars are underway in the current geopolitical power realignment, but the next phase won’t be fought with tariffs or drones. It will be decided by who leads in cryptography.

Just as past industrial and technological revolutions in its private sector yielded the US an edge in global power, the ability to secure and verify information through cryptographic breakthroughs, especially in zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs, will determine the balance of power in the digital age.

The US risks falling behind. While China and other nations invest aggressively in technological advancements, America lacks a national strategy to maintain leadership in this critical domain. It’s time to recognize cryptography as a foundational technological asset and a key to securing the country’s economic and national security future.

From industrial might

During the world wars of the previous century, the US maintained a dominant global position through industrial strength. The country supplied around 75% of the oil used by the Allies in WWI and around 85% of their oil in WWII. The US also manufactured approximately two-thirds of all military equipment used by the Allies in the latter, playing a pivotal role in the war’s outcome.

Industrial strength was not merely an asset. It was a strategic advantage in global conflicts. American influence will continue to be tied to the private sector’s innovations, especially as we move into more technologically advanced forms of warfare.

To software superiority

Superiority in software has become the most efficient way to sustain US leadership worldwide. Stuxnet offers an example in recent history. In 2010, the software-based operation led by the US and Israeli governments was able to remotely crash Iran’s nuclear development program without deploying a single soldier.

Recent: ‘National emergency’ as Trump’s tariffs dent crypto prices

Today’s private companies have followed suit and developed new software technologies for national defense purposes that have become essential in maintaining the US’s competitive edge. Defense contractors have enhanced US global influence with their contributions to AI, surveillance and advanced analytics for national security purposes. 

The historical trend is set to continue as cryptography starts to play an increasingly important role in defense technology.

Cryptography and zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs

The use cases for cryptography, specifically ZK-proofs, extend far beyond the protection of financial transactions. Consider a shift in focus from the AI race for a bit. In that case, ZK-proofs become critical for more immediately tangible purposes, such as securing the country’s digital infrastructure.

The US Department of Advanced Research Projects Agency and the Department of Defense have already acknowledged the strategic importance of ZK-proofs for defense and national security and developed the Securing Information for Encrypted Verification and Evaluation (SIEVE) program.

NASA and the European Space Agency are exploring blockchain and ZK-proofs to ensure the authenticity of satellite communication commands and prevent cyberattacks.

Private sector contributions are embedding secure cryptographic elements into drones to prevent hacking and ensure safe defense and critical infrastructure operations. At the same time, cybersecurity firms are leveraging blockchain to create secure digital identity ecosystems. 

The private sector is currently at the forefront of innovation in this field. In 2019, there was a boom in research papers focused on ZK-proof technology driven by private efforts to find better solutions in blockchain scalability via ZK-rollups. 

New and innovative approaches to ZK-proofs emerged, with most of the research being led and funded by crypto companies in the private sector. These are all production-ready, future-proof technologies that are finding their way into civilian applications but could be applied to military purposes just as quickly.

Global leadership through innovation

America’s dynamism in the digital age, particularly in cryptography and blockchain technologies, will define its future role as a global power. The US must make bold, strategic investments in private-sector and public-sector research and development for ZK-proofs to maintain its leadership in cryptographic technologies, which are now indispensable to national security, defense and economic stability. 

With a pro-crypto administration and a supportive Congress, the time has come to move beyond merely regulating crypto as an investment class. There must be active cultivation and support for innovation in cryptography and emerging technologies like zero-knowledge proofs. The centuries-old relationship between the private sector and the government must continue to defend national interests. 

This is America’s moment to build a new wave of industrial and technological dominance. It’s time to seize this opportunity and ensure the next century of global leadership is powered by American innovation.

Opinion by: Ismael Hishon-Rezaizadeh, co-founder and CEO of Lagrange.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.