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The most successful cryptocurrency traders are still chasing quick profits in memecoins, despite signs that the broader “supercycle” for the speculative assets may be winding down. The shift follows recent disappointment tied to memecoin launches associated with US President Donald Trump.

The industry’s most successful cryptocurrency traders by returns — tracked as “smart money” traders on Nansen’s blockchain intelligence platform — continue hunting for quick memecoin returns.

While growing stablecoin holdings show increased caution, smart money remains open to speculative plays, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen.

“There was the recent meme surge and smart money is always happy to capitulate on that. But they’re also happy to rotate out of these quickly as well,” he said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live show on X.

“The recent meme frenzy was just a fun play they worked on, while the broader market is sorting out the direction because memecoins aren’t necessarily affected by the same macroeconomy as Bitcoin and Ethereum,” he added.

Related: Bitcoin holds firm as stocks lose $5T in record Trump tariff sell-off

The analyst’s insights came a week after a savvy trader turned an initial investment of just $2,000 into $43 million with the popular Pepe (PEPE) cryptocurrency, Cointelegraph reported on March 30.

However, the trader didn’t manage to sell the top but still made a realized profit of over $10 million, despite Pepe’s over 70% decline from its all-time high.

Related: Trump family memecoins may trigger increased SEC scrutiny on crypto

Trump token launch may have ended memecoin “supercycle”

The launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin on Jan. 18 may have signaled the end of the memecoin “supercycle.”

“Pump.fun has been synonymous with the “memecoin supercycle,” as it accounts for over 70% of tokens launched on Solana, according to a Binance research report shared with Cointelegraph.

The memecoin launchpad’s weekly usage metrics peaked on the week of Trump’s inauguration and have since declined. Total active wallets on Pump.fun fell from 2.85 million on the week of Jan. 20 to just 1.44 million as of March 31.

The decline is mainly attributed to a decay in investor sentiment, a Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Market sentiment also appears to have shifted amid unverified reports of insider trading linked to subsequent high-profile tokens such as $MELANIA and $LIBRA.”

“Broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including volatility driven by global tariff policies, may have further dampened speculative appetite for memecoins more generally,” the spokesperson said.

Meanwhile, the TRUMP token is down more than 87% from its peak of $75.35, reached on Jan. 19. The token fell over 8% in the past week, CoinMarketCap data shows.

Magazine: BTC’s ‘reasonable’ $180K target, NFTs plunge in 2024, and more: Hodler’s Digest Jan 12–18

Bitcoin is gaining renewed attention as a hedge against financial instability after holding relatively steady during a record-breaking stock market downturn that saw $5 trillion wiped from the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 posted a $5 trillion loss in market capitalization over two days, its largest drop on record, surpassing the $3.3 trillion decline in March 2020 during the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an April 5 report by Reuters.

The record sell-off occurred after US President Donald Trump announced his reciprocal import tariffs on April 2. The measures aim to shrink the country’s estimated trade deficit of $1.2 trillion in goods and boost domestic manufacturing.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) dip after the tariff announcement was significantly smaller than traditional markets, proving Bitcoin’s growing maturity as a global asset, according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of RedStone blockchain oracle firm.

“What we’re potentially witnessing is an evolution in Bitcoin’s market positioning,” the co-founder told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Historically, Bitcoin has been strongly correlated with risk assets during macro shocks, but this divergence might signal an emerging perception shift among investors.”

“Bitcoin’s fixed supply architecture inherently contrasts with fiat currencies that may face inflationary pressure under tariff-driven economic changes,” he added.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

While stocks plunged, Bitcoin dipped just 3.7% over the same two-day period, trading at around $83,600 as of April 5, according to TradingView data.

Despite the $5 trillion sell-off in traditional markets, “BTC shows its worth, staying above its $82,000 key support level — a sign that structural demand remains intact even amid forced selling and elevated volatility,” Nexo dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev told Cointelegraph.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy buys Bitcoin dip with $1.9B purchase

Bitcoin may emerge as “digital gold” amid Trump tariff talks

Despite Bitcoin’s decoupling from traditional stocks, its initial plunge in price signals that some investors still see Bitcoin as a risk asset, according to James Wo, the founder and CEO of venture capital firm DFG.

“With Bitcoin ETFs enabling greater institutional exposure, it is now even more influenced by macroeconomic trends,” Wo told Cointelegraph, adding:

“However, if Bitcoin remains resilient amid ongoing uncertainty, its hard-capped supply and decentralized nature could not only strengthen its ‘digital gold’ narrative but also position it as an even more reliable store of value.”

Despite the current lack of momentum, analysts are confident in Bitcoin’s upside potential for the rest of 2025.

The growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, marks their 50th birthday amid a year of rising institutional and geopolitical adoption of the world’s first cryptocurrency.

The identity of Nakamoto remains one of the biggest mysteries in crypto, with speculation ranging from cryptographers like Adam Back and Nick Szabo to broader theories involving government intelligence agencies.

While Nakamoto’s identity remains anonymous, the Bitcoin (BTC) creator is believed to have turned 50 on April 5 based on details shared in the past.

According to archived data from his P2P Foundation profile, Nakamoto once claimed to be a 37-year-old man living in Japan and listed his birthdate as April 5, 1975.

Nakamoto’s anonymity has played a vital role in maintaining the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network, which has no central authority or leadership.

The Bitcoin wallet associated with Nakamoto, which holds over 1 million BTC, has laid dormant for more than 16 years despite BTC rising from $0 to an all-time high above $109,000 in January.

Nakamoto’s 50th birthday comes nearly a month after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile, marking the first major step toward integrating Bitcoin into the US financial system.

Related: Bitcoin at 16: From experiment to trillion-dollar asset

Nakamoto’s legacy: a “cornerstone of economic sovereignty”

“At 50, Nakamoto’s legacy is no longer just code; it’s a cornerstone of economic sovereignty,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

“Bitcoin’s reserve status signals trust in its scarcity and resilience,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding: 

“What’s fascinating is the timing. Fifty feels symbolic — half a century of life, mirrored by Bitcoin’s journey from a white paper to a trillion-dollar asset. Nakamoto’s vision of trustless, peer-to-peer money has outgrown its cypherpunk roots, entering the halls of power.”

However, lingering questions about Nakamoto remain unanswered, including whether they still hold the keys to their wallet, which is “a fortune now tied to US policy,” Lian said.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Is Satoshi Nakamoto wealthier than Bill Gates?

In February, Arkham Intelligence published findings that attribute 1.096 million BTC — then valued at more than $108 billion — to Nakamoto. That would place him above Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on the global wealth rankings, according to data shared by Coinbase director Conor Grogan.

If accurate, this would make Nakamoto the world’s 16th richest person.

Despite the growing interest in Nakamoto’s identity and holdings, his early decision to remain anonymous and inactive has helped preserve Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos — a principle that continues to define the cryptocurrency to this day.

Magazine: 10 crypto theories that missed as badly as ‘Peter Todd is Satoshi’

The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.

On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.

Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”

Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.

The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.

“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”

On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.

Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks

Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.

Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.

Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.

Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”

Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner and vocal crypto critic Caroline Crenshaw has accused the US regulator of downplaying risks and misrepresenting the US stablecoin market in its newly published guidelines.

However, many in the crypto industry see the SEC’s decision as a step in the right direction.

In an April 4 statement, Crenshaw said that the SEC’s statement on stablecoins — issued on the same day — contained “legal and factual errors that paint a distorted picture of the USD-stablecoin market that drastically understates its risks.”

Crenshaw disagrees, crypto industry applauds

Under the new SEC guidelines, stablecoins that meet certain criteria are now considered “non-securities” and are exempt from transaction reporting requirements.

Crenshaw disputed the accuracy of the analysis made by the SEC in arriving at that decision. She pushed back on the SEC for reiterating issuer actions “that supposedly stabilize price, ensure redeemability, and otherwise reduce risk.”

The SEC said that “albeit briefly, that some USD-stablecoins are available to retail purchasers only through an intermediary and not directly from the issuer.”

Crenshaw argued this was misleading. She said:

“It is the general rule, not the exception, that these coins are available to the retail public only through intermediaries who sell them on the secondary market, such as crypto trading platforms.”

“Over 90% of USD-stablecoins in circulation are distributed in this way,” Crenshaw added.

Meanwhile, many in the crypto industry expressed optimism over the decision.

Token Metrics founder Ian Ballina said it “feels like a clear step in focusing on what really matters in the crypto space.”

Crypto industry says positive step, just late

Vemanti CEO Tan Tran said he wished the SEC reached this point three years ago, while Midnight Network’s head of partnerships Ian Kane said it “feels like progress for crypto folks trying to play by the rules.”

Crenshaw said it is “also grossly inaccurate” for the SEC to reassure users that an issuer has sufficient reserves to satisfy unlimited redemption requests just because its reserve is valued “at or above the par value of its outstanding coins.”

Related: Stablecoins’ in bull market’; Solana sputters: VanEck

“The issuer’s overall financial health and solvency cannot be judged by the value of its reserve, which tells us nothing about its liabilities, risk from proprietary financial activities, and so forth,” Crenshaw said.

She explained that stablecoins always carry some risk, particularly during market stress or when their price begins to fall.

It comes only weeks after stablecoin issuer Tether was reportedly engaging with a Big Four accounting firm to audit its assets reserve and verify that its USDT stablecoin is backed at a 1:1 ratio.

On March 22, Cointelegraph reported that Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the audit process would be more straightforward under pro-crypto US President Donald Trump.

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of ‘higher inflation’

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Cryptocurrency firms felt the heat from US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff rollout this week as market turbulence sent share prices tumbling and foiled initial public offering (IPO) plans. 

From exchanges to Bitcoin (BTC) miners, crypto stocks suffered as much, if not more, than shares of other companies — despite the industry’s warm relationship with the US president. 

On April 2, Trump announced he was placing tariffs of at least 10% on practically all imports into the United States and adding additional “reciprocal” tariffs on some 57 countries. 

Since then, major US stock indices — including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq — tumbled by roughly 10% as traders braced for a looming trade war. 

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of ‘higher inflation’

Sharp selloffs

Crypto exchange Coinbase — a prominent ally of Trump during the November US elections — experienced a similarly severe sell-off, with its stock price dropping by roughly 12% during the same period, according to data from Google Finance.

Bitcoin miners are also taking a hit. The CoinShares Crypto Miners ETF (WGMI) — which tracks a diverse basket of Bitcoin mining stocks — has lost roughly 13% of its value since immediately prior to Trump’s April 2 announcement, according to data from Morningstar. 

Even Strategy, one of the best-performing stocks of 2024, wasn’t immune. Its share price has fallen by around 6% on the news, Google Finance data showed.

According to Reuters, investment bank JPMorgan has raised its estimated odds of a global economic recession in 2025 to 60% from 40% previously. 

“Disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” JP Morgan reportedly said.

“The effect … is likely to be magnified through (tariff) retaliation, a slide in U.S. business sentiment and supply-chain disruptions.”

IPO delays

The impact of US tariffs hasn’t been limited to stock price volatility. Stablecoin issuer Circle has reportedly paused plans for a 2025 IPO, citing market turbulence. 

According to The Wall Street Journal, Circle is “waiting anxiously” before taking further steps after filing to take the company public on April 1. 

It is among several companies — including fintech Klarna and ticketing service StubHub — reportedly considering altering or shelving IPO plans. 

One exception may be Bitcoin itself, which some analysts say is finally “decoupling” from the broader market.

Bitcoin’s spot price has held above $82,000 this week, even as US equities markets collapsed.

Magazine: Unstablecoins: Depegging, bank runs and other risks loom