Technical indicators alongside macro-economic factors are prompting analysts to predict further downward momentum for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
What Happened: In a podcast on Thursday, prominen analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that the S&P 500’s decline could extend into April, resembling past market downturns that have had ripple effects across both equities and crypto.
While March has historically marked a bottoming point during corrections—such as the financial crisis and pandemic crash—Cowen notes that sometimes the downturn extends into April.
One key date is mid-April, when the next inflation print is released. With new tariffs in focus, investors …
The latest round of tariffs from the Trump administration and their potential to erase trillions of dollars from the stock market.
Negative SOL futures basis and funding rates.
Multiple technical factors.
Let’s examine these catalysts in detail.
Trump tariffs rattle Solana and broader crypto market
Solana’s decline occurred in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s April 2, “Liberation Day” tariffs. The escalation in trade tensions led investors to move away from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies like SOL, in favor of safer investments.
SOL/USD vs. TOTAL crypto market cap and Nasdaq Composite daily performance chart. Source: TradingView
SOL’s recent price decline is closely tied to fading demand in its futures market, as reflected by a sharp drop in the annualized rolling basis on three-month contracts.
The annualized rolling basis shows how much more (or less) futures contracts are trading compared to the current spot price, expressed as an annual percentage.
A high basis means futures are trading at a significant premium, signaling bullish expectations and strong demand for leveraged long positions. On the other hand, a low or negative basis means futures are trading close to or below the spot price, indicating a lack of speculative interest or growing bearish sentiment.
SOL futures basis peaked in mid-November 2024 at 18% and was below 0% as of April 3, showing that traders are no longer paying a premium for SOL.
Solana futures annualized rolling basis. Source: Glassnode
Solana’s funding rates turn negative
Solana’s price drop further aligns with its declining funding rates, indicating a weakening bullish momentum in the market.
SOL’s weekly funding ratesslipped to -0.0462 on April 3 from 0.14% a day ago, and this negative funding means short traders are paying longs, highlighting the expectation for further downside.
SOL OI-weighted funding rates. Source: CoinGlass
Currently, SOL’s daily chart shows a pattern of bear flag continuation, a process where consecutive bearish structures confirm and drive prices lower.
As of April 3, SOL was trading below its flag pattern’s lower trendline, projecting a price decline to $96.
SOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The Defiance Daily Target 2X Long RIOT ETF (NYSE:RIOX), launched to double the daily returns of Bitcoin mining company Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT), has lost its value by as much as 73% in the three months.
The ETF’s investment strategy, using a 2x daily leverage on Riot stock, is one of the key reasons for its sharp fall. Leverage increases not only daily …
VanEck has made a big move in bringing a Binance Coin (CRYPTO: BNB) ETF to the United States. The company recently registered for a BNB ETF trust in the state of Delaware, an important milestone for the crypto asset.
What This Means for BNB
This action positions Binance Coin with other giant cryptocurrencies—Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche—for which ETF filings have been submitted in the country. BNB may have global exchange-traded products (ETPs) such as the 21Shares Binance BNB ETP but has never had one based in the U.S. If approved, VanEck’s ETF will mirror the price of BNB, offering investors a more convenient means of acquiring exposure to the …
Cango, a publicly traded Chinese conglomerate, has agreed to sell its legacy China operations to an entity associated with peer Bitmain in a bid to go all-in on Bitcoin (BTC) mining, according to a report by The Miner Mag.
Cango agreed to sell its legacy Chinese auto financing business to Ursalpha Digital Limited in a $352 million deal, according to the report.
Additionally, Bitmain is reportedly transferring 32 exahashes per second (EH/s) to Cango. The deal effectively brings Bitmain’s mining assets to the public market, The Miner Mag said.
Exahashes measure a miner’s contribution to the Bitcoin network’s hashrate, the total computing power securing the network.
The Miner Mag said Ursalpha Digital Limited has the same corporate address and founding director as Antalpha, an entity ultimately controlled by the chairman of Bitcoin miner Bitmain.
Proxies for Cango’s shares on the NYSE are up 25% this month. Source: Google Finance
Bitmain has experienced US scrutiny after the country blacklisted its artificial intelligence affiliate Sopghgo, Bloomberg reported.
According to Bloomberg, Bitmain has a working relationship with American Bitcoin, a Trump-family-affiliated mining entity created in March as part of a deal with Hut 8, a provider of power and computing infrastructure.
On March 31, Hut 8 bought a majority ownership interest in American Bitcoin (formerly American Data Centers), whose founders include US President Donald Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.
Hut 8 has transferred its Bitcoin mining equipment to American Bitcoin, which is reportedly mulling an initial public offering (IPO), according to Bloomberg.
The companies said that American Bitcoin will focus on crypto mining, while Hut 8 targets data center infrastructure for applications such as high-performance computing.
In 2025, Bitcoin mining stocks have struggled amid declining cryptocurrency prices and pressure on business models caused by the Bitcoin network’s April halving, according to a JPMorgan research note shared with Cointelegraph.
Every four years, the amount of BTC mined per “block” — a bundle of transaction data stored on the chain — is cut in half. April’s halving slashed mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block.
The number of pre-seed funding rounds for Bitcoin (BTC) startup companies has grown by 767% since 2021, according to a report from venture capital firm Trammell Venture Partners (TVP).
Bitcoin pre-seed transactions increased 50% year-over-year in 2024, with a 27.5% year-over-year increase in the number of startup companies funded.
Christopher Calicott, TVP’s managing director, attributed the increased deals to the robust security of the BTC network:
“Many entrepreneurs across crypto are revisiting the Bitcoin stack as the long-term place to build their companies. It makes perfect sense: The objectively most secure, reliable, and decentralized blockchain is the obvious platform of choice.”
However, the capital raised in Bitcoin pre-seed funding rounds declined by over 22% in 2024, with the median funding round size and the median startup valuation steadily declining from 2021 to 2023.
Median valuations for pre-seed Bitcoin startups fail to reclaim 2021 levels. Source: Trammell Venture Partners
The value of funding rounds reclaimed some lost ground in 2024 but failed to reach highs established during the previous bull cycle in 2021, primarily due to unclear crypto regulations in the United States under the previous Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) leadership.
Crypto VCs don’t expect 2025 funding to reach 2021-2022 levels
In January, Deng Chao, CEO of institutional asset manager HashKey Capital, told Cointelegraph that pro-crypto regulations in the United States would increase VC investment in the sector in 2025.
However, the executive warned that macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil could increase price volatility and disrupt the trend brought on by positive regulatory tailwinds.
Crypto markets took a nosedive amid trade war fears and macroeconomic uncertainty. Source: CoinMarketCap
Risk-on assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies typically suffer during trade wars and macroeconomic uncertainty, as investors flee risk assets for safer alternatives such as cash, government securities, and durable commodities.
Venture capital firm Haun Ventures invested $1.5 billion into crypto firms in 2022 but recently announced it seeks to raise only $1 billion in the first half of 2025, citing changed market conditions.
Similarly, analysts at Galaxy Digital also predicted a 50% year-over-year rise in VC-led crypto investments in 2025 but said that VC funding will fail to reach highs established in 2021–2022.
Decentralized exchange aggregator ParaSwap has rebranded to Velora, unveiling a major technical shift toward intents-based trading—a model that departs from traditional single-block execution by allowing traders to express desired outcomes rather than fixed transaction paths.
The shift, announced Thursday, is built on the release of Velora’s Delta v2.5 infrastructure, introducing a competitive agent model where solvers and market makers vie to fulfill user-defined trading goals.
This marks a move away from the legacy aggregator model that has underpinned decentralized finance since its early growth.
At its core, intents-based trading enables users to specify conditions or outcomes—such as a desired price or action—without defining every technical step of the trade. …
The US House Financial Services Committee has advanced a bill aimed at preventing federal banks from using or issuing central bank digital currencies, or CBDCs, paving the way for a vote in the chamber.
In an April 2 committee session, lawmakers voted 27-22 in favor of passing the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act. The bill was one of five the committee considered in a markup hearing discussing possible amendments. Lawmakers also approved a bill regulating payment stablecoins, setting up the legislation for a full House vote.
“Last Congress, this bill passed out of the House of Representatives by a 216-192 vote,” said Minnesota Representative Tom Emmer, the anti-CBDC bill’s sponsor. “So far this Congress, this bill has 114 cosponsors and support from groups ranging from the Independent Community Bankers Association and the American Bankers Association to Club for Growth, Heritage Action, and the Blockchain Association.”
Many Republican lawmakers have targeted institutions like the Federal Reserve or Treasury Department from exploring CBDC development, often citing financial privacy concerns.
After reintroducing the bill in March, Rep. Emmer suggested it was an attempt to codify an executive order from US President Donald Trump into law. That order, signed on Jan. 23, prohibited “the establishment, issuance, circulation, and use” of a CBDC in the United States.
Bitcoin (BTC) and US stock markets all sold off sharply after US President Donald Trump shook up financial markets by announcing a list of reciprocal tariffs on several countries.
On April 3, the S&P 500 saw a 4.2% drop at market open, its most significant single-day decline since June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.41%, to 40,785.41 from 42,225.32, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.23%. Overall, $1.6 trillion in value was wiped out from US stock at the market open.
Bitcoin’s value dropped by 8%, but a positive is bulls seem capable of defending the $80,000 support level. These steep declines essentially stem from uncertainty surrounding the new tariffs and amplify investors’ concerns about impending recession.
Source: X
Data from CoinGecko suggests that the total crypto market has dropped 6.8% over the past 24 hours and it seems unlikely that a relief rally is viable in the short-term.
According to CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, more than 200,000 traders were liquidated, with the total amount exceeding $573.4 million. The largest liquidation occurred on Binance, with an ETH/USDT position worth $11.97 million being force closed.
Total crypto liquidation chart. Source: CoinGlass
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s open interest dropped below $50 billion, reducing market leverage. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, mentioned that the liquidation heatmaps indicate heavy leverage around $80,000, raising the potential for a potential drop to $64K-$65K if Bitcoin breaks this level with high trading volume.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Cryptocurrency traders on social media are debating whether a hypothetical Harris presidency may have been a better long-term outcome for the sector, given the poor performance of cryptocurrencies since President Trump took office.
What Happened: Pseudonymous trader Pickle outlined a “what-if” scenario in a post on X on Thursday, comparing how cryptocurrencies would have performed if Kamala Harris had won the presidency.
He posits that regulatory pressures would have remained high, likely driving Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) down to the high $50,000s from $70,000 before a gradual recovery.
